Portmore United vs Violette AC
Match details. CONCACAF Caribbean Cup, Semi-finals. Kick-off is Wed 14 Oct, 01:00 Lagos time. It is played at Sabina Park, Kingston.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Portmore United have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W W L. Violette AC have won six, drawn none and lost two of their last eight, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W.
The numbers. Portmore United score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Portmore United average 11.7 shots (4.7 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.6 cards a game. Violette AC score 1.5 and concede 1.1 a game over their last eight, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Violette AC average 12.0 shots (5.8 on target), 3.5 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 36% against the records' 62%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The read. No firm call: Violette AC are the better side, but not at this price. Violette AC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Violette AC.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Portmore United 1-1 Violette AC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).