Wycombe Wanderers vs Notts County
Match details. League One, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Adams Park, High Wycombe.
What's at stake. Wycombe Wanderers are 15th on 10 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Luton, 1 point clear of Doncaster. A win would take them above Luton. Notts County are 22nd on 7 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Bromley, 1 point clear of Milton Keynes Dons. A win would take them above Bromley.
Form. Wycombe Wanderers have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W. Notts County have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L L.
The numbers. Wycombe Wanderers score two and concede two a game in their last seven at home, with no clean sheets. Wycombe Wanderers average 8.6 shots (4.0 on target), 5.3 corners and 0.9 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Notts County score 1.5 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Notts County average 4.2 shots (1.7 on target), 4.5 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Wycombe Wanderers have won one, drawn four and lost three. Three of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Wycombe Wanderers won one, one was drawn and Notts County won two. The last time they met, on 30 Mar 2018, it finished Wycombe Wanderers 0-0 Notts County.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 29% against the records' 51%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%; five of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The read. No side to back. A draw is live. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Five of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.39, 71% on the records (Wycombe Wanderers: under 3.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home; Notts County: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Notts County or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Wycombe Wanderers 1-1 Notts County (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).