Match details. Esiliiga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. FC Tallinn are 9th on 35 points after 31 games, 1 point behind Nõmme United II, 12 points clear of Nõmme Kalju II. A win would take them above Nõmme United II. Tartu JK Welco are 1st on 65 points after 31 games, 12 points clear of Viimsi. FC Tallinn have nothing left to play for.
Form. FC Tallinn have won two, drawn three and lost four of their last nine, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W L. In this competition FC Tallinn have gone W D L W L L. Tartu JK Welco have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D D. In this competition Tartu JK Welco have gone W W W D D L.
The numbers. FC Tallinn score one and concede 1.7 a game over their last nine, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Tartu JK Welco score 1.6 and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings FC Tallinn have won one, drawn two and lost six. Five of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, FC Tallinn won one, one was drawn and Tartu JK Welco won two. The last time they met, on 18 Jul 2026, it finished FC Tallinn 2-0 Tartu JK Welco.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%; five of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. FC Tallinn's record still gives them 20% to win.
The read. Tartu JK Welco to win. Their goals for and against make Tartu JK Welco the likelier winners; Tartu JK Welco are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Tartu JK Welco; the meetings favour Tartu JK Welco.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Tartu JK Welco at 1.13, 80% on the records (Tartu JK Welco unbeaten in 4 of 5 away; FC Tallinn failed to win 7 of 9). Leave: Tartu JK Welco Over 1.5 Goals (Tartu JK Welco's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (Tartu JK Welco are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Tartu JK Welco are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: FC Tallinn 0-1 Tartu JK Welco (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).