Match details. Regionalliga Bavaria. Kick-off is Tue 13 Oct, 17:30 Lagos time.
Form. TSV Aubstadt have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L L. FV Illertissen have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L W W.
The numbers. TSV Aubstadt score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. TSV Aubstadt average 0.2 cards a game. FV Illertissen score two and concede two a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. FV Illertissen average 0.2 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The case against. TSV Aubstadt's record still gives them 20% to win.
The read. FV Illertissen to win. FV Illertissen are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FV Illertissen.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: FV Illertissen or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); FV Illertissen 1UP (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: TSV Aubstadt 0-1 FV Illertissen (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).