INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

SDSHA

20:00Wed 14 Oct

AEK

Shakhtar D vs AEK Athens

CLASS B

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It's at Stamford Bridge, London, a neutral ground. Chris Kavanagh is the referee.

What's at stake. Shakhtar D sit 23rd on 1 point after 1 game, level with AS Roma and Fenerbahçe. A win would lift them above AS Roma. AEK Athens sit 17th on 3 points after 1 game, level with Real Madrid and Club Brugge KV. A win would put them above Real Madrid.

Form. Shakhtar D have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game, with a recent run of W W W W D. In this competition Shakhtar D have gone D. AEK Athens have won eight, drawn two and lost none of their last ten, 2.6 points a game, with a recent run of W W W D W.

The numbers. Shakhtar D score 2.2 and concede 0.5 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets. They average 13.2 shots (5.9 on target), 4.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game. AEK Athens score 3.1 and concede 0.4 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets. They average 14.7 shots (6.0 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.

The case against. Shakhtar D's record still gives them 40% to win.

The read. AEK Athens to win. Their goals for and against make AEK Athens the likelier winners. AEK Athens are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour AEK Athens.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Shakhtar D or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs AEK Athens); Shakhtar D or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs AEK Athens). Predicted score: Shakhtar D 0-1 AEK Athens (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

AEK Athens or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SHA 10 of 10 (100%) · AEK 9 of 10 (90%)95%

AEK Athens: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Shakhtar D: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95%

Double Chance: Shakhtar D or AEK AthensIN CODES

1.34

SHA 9 of 10 (90%) · AEK 8 of 10 (80%)85%

Shakhtar D: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AEK Athens: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85%

AEK Athens or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.47

SHA 8 of 10 (80%) · AEK 6 of 10 (60%)70%

AEK Athens: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Shakhtar D: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70%

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.29

SHA 9 of 10 (90%) · AEK 9 of 10 (90%)90%

Shakhtar D: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AEK Athens: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90%

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.14

SHA 9 of 10 (90%) · AEK 8 of 10 (80%)85%

Shakhtar D: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AEK Athens: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85%

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.40

SHA 8 of 10 (80%) · AEK 8 of 10 (80%)80%

Shakhtar D: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AEK Athens: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.27

SHA 8 of 10 (80%) · AEK 8 of 10 (80%)80%

Shakhtar D: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AEK Athens: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Over 2.5 Goals (the numbers (49%) and the records (55%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Shakhtar D or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs AEK Athens); Shakhtar D or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs AEK Athens)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 10.3%

Shakhtar D goals →

AEK Athens goals ↓

0-08%

1-07%

2-04%

3-02%

4-00.5%

5-00.1%

0-110%

1-113%

2-17%

3-13%

4-10.7%

5-10.2%

0-28%

1-29%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-34%

1-35%

2-33%

3-31.0%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-42%

1-42%

2-41.0%

3-40.4%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.5%

1-50.5%

2-50.3%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

SHAKHTAR DWWWLWDWWWW2.50 PPG

AEK ATHENSWWDWWWDWWW2.60 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SHAKHTAR D HOMExAEK ATHENS AWAY

2.20SCORED A GAME3.100.50CONCEDED A GAME0.4060%CLEAN SHEETS60%12%FAILED TO SCORE33%4.56CORNERS A GAME4.701.78CARDS A GAME1.70

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.40POINTS A GAME2.20+1.40GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.80+7.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+3.62.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.25LEAGUE GAMES5

Shakhtar D: the quality side - more shots than it allows.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

96%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

62%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

92%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

SHAKHTAR D OR DRAW

67%

NO · 80/85

AEK ATHENS OR DRAW

68%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 5 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

SHAKHTAR DxAEK ATHENS

5GAMES52.00SCORED A GAME2.400.60CONCEDED A GAME0.602.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.0100%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%20%BOTH SCORE60%3.4CARDS IN THEIR GAMES4.68.6CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES8.0

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Shakhtar D have scored in 90% of their games.

AEK Athens have scored in 100% of their games.

Shakhtar D kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.

AEK Athens kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards