Alacranes de Durango vs CD Tapatio
Match details. Liga de Expansion MX, Apertura - 13. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 04:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango. The referee is D. S. Perez Borja.
What's at stake. Alacranes de Durango are 8th on 18 points after 12 games, level on points with Mineros de Zacatecas, 1 point clear of Tapatío. A win would take them above Mineros de Zacatecas. CD Tapatio are 9th on 17 points after 12 games, 1 point behind Durango, 1 point clear of Dorados. A win would take them above Durango.
Form. Alacranes de Durango have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W L. In this competition Alacranes de Durango have gone D W W W L D. CD Tapatio have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W L. In this competition CD Tapatio have gone W L L W L L.
The numbers. Alacranes de Durango score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Alacranes de Durango average 5.7 corners and 2.5 cards a game. CD Tapatio score 1.4 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. CD Tapatio average 3.8 corners and 2.3 cards a game.
Head to head. CD Tapatio have won all of the last two meetings. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 12 Apr 2023, it finished Alacranes de Durango 2-5 CD Tapatio.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: CD Tapatio are the stronger side on form and the table, but both teams' records favour Alacranes de Durango.
The case against. Alacranes de Durango's record still gives them 47% to win.
The read. CD Tapatio or the draw. An open game. CD Tapatio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Alacranes de Durango. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.24, 78% on the records (Alacranes de Durango: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; CD Tapatio: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.20. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); CD Tapatio 1UP (the signs point different ways); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Alacranes de Durango 1-2 CD Tapatio (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).