Match details. Primera Division, Clausura - 11. Kick-off is Tue 20 Oct, 00:00 Lagos time. It is played at Gran Parque Central, Montevideo. The referee is Mathias De Armas.
What's at stake. Club Nacional de Football are 4th on 20 points after 10 games, level on points with Penarol, 2 points clear of Deportivo Maldonado. A win would take them above Penarol. Deportivo Maldonado are 5th on 18 points after 10 games, 2 points behind Club Nacional, level on points with Cerro. A win would take them above Club Nacional.
Form. Club Nacional de Football have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W D. In this competition Club Nacional de Football have gone W W W W D D. Deportivo Maldonado have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W L. In this competition Deportivo Maldonado have gone D W W W L W.
The numbers. Club Nacional de Football score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Club Nacional de Football average 6.6 corners and 2.7 cards a game. Deportivo Maldonado score 1.4 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and three games without a goal. Deportivo Maldonado average 4.5 corners and 2.9 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Club Nacional de Football have won three, drawn one and lost five. Seven of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Club Nacional de Football won two and Deportivo Maldonado won two. The last time they met, on 31 May 2026, it finished Club Nacional de Football 0-3 Deportivo Maldonado.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Club Nacional de Football the likelier winners, but Deportivo Maldonado are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Deportivo Maldonado. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%; seven of the last nine meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Seven of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.30, 75% on the records (Club Nacional de Football: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Deportivo Maldonado: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Backup: Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.40. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Deportivo Maldonado or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Deportivo Maldonado or Draw (1UP) (no result call). Predicted score: Club Nacional de Football 2-1 Deportivo Maldonado (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).