Jong Ajax Amsterdam vs De Graafschap
Match details. Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Mon 19 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time. It is played at Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam.
What's at stake. Jong Ajax Amsterdam are 18th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Jong PSV U21, level on points with Jong AZ. A win would take them above Jong PSV U21. De Graafschap are 1st on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with VVV Venlo.
Form. Jong Ajax Amsterdam have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L W. De Graafschap have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W.
The numbers. Jong Ajax Amsterdam score 1.4 and concede 2.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Jong Ajax Amsterdam average 15.0 shots (5.2 on target), 4.7 corners and 3.1 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. De Graafschap score 1.2 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. De Graafschap average 13.5 shots (4.4 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Jong Ajax Amsterdam have won four, drawn two and lost four. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Jong Ajax Amsterdam won one, one was drawn and De Graafschap won two. The last time they met, on 6 Feb 2026, it finished Jong Ajax Amsterdam 0-4 De Graafschap: Jong Ajax Amsterdam had 6 shots to 17, 42% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%; six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Jong Ajax Amsterdam's record still gives them 32% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their xG points to a tight game.
The read. De Graafschap or the draw. An open game. De Graafschap are the stronger side on form and the table. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%. Six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Jong Ajax Amsterdam Over 0.5 goals (Jong Ajax Amsterdam's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Jong Ajax Amsterdam 1-2 De Graafschap (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).