Poland vs Belgium
Match details. FIFA World Cup, Women, Qualification, UEFA. Kick-off is Tue 13 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. Poland have won one, drawn one and lost eight of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. Belgium have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D D.
The numbers. Poland score 1.4 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Poland average 8.2 shots (3.2 on target), 3.2 corners and 1.4 cards a game. Belgium score three and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Belgium average 10.3 shots (5.9 on target), 6.4 corners and 1.4 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 36% against the records' 65%.
The read. No firm call: Belgium are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Belgium the likelier winners; Belgium are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Belgium. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Poland 1-2 Belgium (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).