Match details. Challenge Cup. Kick-off is Tue 13 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
Form. Spartans FC have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D L. Bonnyrigg Rose have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L W.
The numbers. Spartans FC score 2.3 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Spartans FC average 0.0 cards a game. Bonnyrigg Rose score 1.4 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Bonnyrigg Rose average 0.0 cards a game.
The case against. Bonnyrigg Rose's record still gives them 41% to win.
The read. Spartans FC to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Spartans FC the likelier winners; Spartans FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Spartans FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Spartans FC Over 0.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Spartans FC 2-1 Bonnyrigg Rose (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).