RFK Akhmat Grozny vs FC Orenburg
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 17:30 Lagos time. It is played at Akhmat Arena, Groznyi.
What's at stake. RFK Akhmat Grozny are 13th on 11 points after 11 games, level on points with Lokomotiv, 2 points clear of Akron. A win would take them above Lokomotiv. FC Orenburg are 6th on 13 points after 11 games, 9 points behind FC Krasnodar, level on points with Baltika.
Team news. RFK Akhmat Grozny are without J. Romao (injury), J. Romao (injury). FC Orenburg are without M. Rudakov (arm injury), M. Savelyev (inactive), D. Vasiljev (inactive), M. Rudakov (arm injury), M. Savelyev (inactive), D. Vasiljev (inactive).
Form. RFK Akhmat Grozny have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D L W. FC Orenburg have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W D L.
The numbers. RFK Akhmat Grozny score 2.2 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet. RFK Akhmat Grozny average 12.5 shots (3.8 on target), 4.4 corners and 3.2 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. FC Orenburg score 1.8 and concede one a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. FC Orenburg average 13.9 shots (4.9 on target), 3.5 corners and 4.9 cards a game, with 38% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings RFK Akhmat Grozny have won three, drawn three and lost three. Three of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, RFK Akhmat Grozny won one, one was drawn and FC Orenburg won two. The last time they met, on 5 Dec 2025, it finished RFK Akhmat Grozny 1-0 FC Orenburg: RFK Akhmat Grozny had 9 shots to 14, 51% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%; six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. FC Orenburg's record still gives them 24% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The read. RFK Akhmat Grozny or the draw. An open game. FC Orenburg are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: RFK Akhmat Grozny 2-1 FC Orenburg (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).