Atlante FC vs Pumas UNAM
Match details. Liga MX, Apertura - 12. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 04:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Azul, Mexico City. The referee is Luis Enrique Santander Aguirre.
What's at stake. Atlante FC are 16th on 11 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Atletico San Luis, 2 points clear of Necaxa. A win would take them above Atletico San Luis. Pumas UNAM are 12th on 13 points after 11 games, level on points with CF Pachuca, level on points with Tigres UANL. A win would take them above CF Pachuca.
Form. Atlante FC have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L D. In this competition Atlante FC have gone L W D L D D. Pumas UNAM have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D L W. In this competition Pumas UNAM have gone D L D L W L.
The numbers. Atlante FC score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Atlante FC average 16.9 shots (5.1 on target), 4.9 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. Pumas UNAM score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Pumas UNAM average 13.9 shots (4.5 on target), 6.6 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Atlante FC the likelier winners, but Pumas UNAM are the stronger side on form and the table. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.41, 70% on the records (Atlante FC: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Pumas UNAM: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Atlante FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Pumas UNAM or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Atlante FC 1-1 Pumas UNAM (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).