CA Independiente Avellaneda vs Boca Juniors
Match details. Primera LPF, Clausura - 14. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Libertadores de America, Buenos Aires. The referee is Nazareno Arasa.
What's at stake. CA Independiente Avellaneda are 8th on 19 points after 13 games, 1 point behind Gimnasia M., 1 point clear of San Lorenzo. A win would take them above Gimnasia M.. Boca Juniors are 3rd on 24 points after 13 games, 3 points behind Defensa Y Justicia, level on points with Lanus. A win would take them level on points with Defensa Y Justicia.
Form. CA Independiente Avellaneda have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L W D. In this competition CA Independiente Avellaneda have gone D D L W D W. Boca Juniors have won five, drawn five and lost none of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W. In this competition Boca Juniors have gone W D W W W D.
The numbers. CA Independiente Avellaneda score 0.4 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. CA Independiente Avellaneda average 11.9 shots (3.4 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Boca Juniors score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Boca Juniors average 15.0 shots (5.0 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings CA Independiente Avellaneda have won two, drawn five and lost two. Three of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, CA Independiente Avellaneda won one, two were drawn and Boca Juniors won one. The last time they met, on 11 Apr 2026, it finished CA Independiente Avellaneda 1-1 Boca Juniors: CA Independiente Avellaneda had 8 shots to 12, 39% of the ball, three yellow cards.
The read. Boca Juniors or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Boca Juniors are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%. Six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.19, 76% on the records (CA Independiente Avellaneda: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Boca Juniors: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Boca Juniors or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Boca Juniors or draw and under 3.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Boca Juniors or draw and under 2.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CA Independiente Avellaneda 1-1 Boca Juniors (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).