Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC
Match details. LigaPro Primera A, Relegation Group - 3. Kick-off is Mon 19 Oct, 21:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio del Mushuc Runa Sporting Club, Ambato. The referee is Yerson Zambrano.
What's at stake. Mushuc Runa SC are 12th on 39 points after 32 games, 2 points behind Deportivo Cuenca, 4 points clear of Delfin SC. A win would take them above Deportivo Cuenca. Orense SC are 14th on 34 points after 32 games, 1 point behind Delfin SC, 1 point clear of Tecnico Universitario. A win would take them above Delfin SC. Mushuc Runa SC have nothing left to play for. Orense SC have nothing left to play for. It is played over two legs.
Form. Mushuc Runa SC have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L D D. In this competition Mushuc Runa SC have gone L D L D D W. Orense SC have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L W L. In this competition Orense SC have gone D L L W L L.
The numbers. Mushuc Runa SC score 1.1 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and three games without a goal. Mushuc Runa SC average 11.1 shots (2.6 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. Orense SC score 0.5 and concede two a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Orense SC average 13.5 shots (4.0 on target), 4.6 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Mushuc Runa SC have won four, drawn two and lost four. Eight of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in eight. In the last four, Mushuc Runa SC won one and Orense SC won three. The last time they met, on 20 Jul 2026, it finished Mushuc Runa SC 2-1 Orense SC: Mushuc Runa SC had 18 shots to 8, 50% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%; eight of the last ten meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Orense SC's record still gives them 22% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. Mushuc Runa SC to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Mushuc Runa SC the likelier winners; Mushuc Runa SC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Mushuc Runa SC. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%. Eight of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Mushuc Runa SC or Draw at 1.22, 73% on the records (Mushuc Runa SC unbeaten in 8 of 10; Orense SC failed to win 6 of 6 away). Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Mushuc Runa SC or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Orense SC Over 0.5 goals (Orense SC's own games don't back it (3 of 6)). Predicted score: Mushuc Runa SC 2-1 Orense SC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).