Atletico de Rafaela vs Quilmes AC
Match details. Primera Nacional, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 01:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Nuevo Monumental, Rafaela.
What's at stake. Atletico de Rafaela are 11th on 42 points after 33 games, 1 point behind San Martin Tucuman, 1 point clear of Almagro. A win would take them above San Martin Tucuman. Quilmes AC are 14th on 39 points after 33 games, 1 point behind Agropecuario, 2 points clear of Patronato. A win would take them above Agropecuario. Atletico de Rafaela have nothing left to play for. Quilmes AC have nothing left to play for.
Form. Atletico de Rafaela have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W L. In this competition Atletico de Rafaela have gone L L L W L L. Quilmes AC have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L W. In this competition Quilmes AC have gone L D W L W L.
The numbers. Atletico de Rafaela score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Quilmes AC score 0.7 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and six games without a goal.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Atletico de Rafaela have won three, drawn three and lost three. Three of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Atletico de Rafaela won two and Quilmes AC won two. The last time they met, on 31 May 2026, it finished Atletico de Rafaela 0-2 Quilmes AC.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: Quilmes AC are the stronger side on form and the table, but both teams' records favour Atletico de Rafaela; the meetings favour Quilmes AC.
The case against. Quilmes AC's record still gives them 31% to win. The meetings do not back them.
The read. Atletico de Rafaela or the draw. A tight game. Quilmes AC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Atletico de Rafaela; the meetings favour Quilmes AC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%. Six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.14, 78% on the records (Atletico de Rafaela: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Quilmes AC: under 3.5 goals in 10 of 10). Backup: Atletico de Rafaela or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.14. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Atletico de Rafaela 1-1 Quilmes AC (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).