San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
Match details. MLS, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 03:30 Lagos time. It is played at PayPal Park, San Jose, California. The referee is Joseph Dickerson.
What's at stake. San Jose Earthquakes are 4th on 47 points after 29 games, 3 points behind FC Dallas, 1 point clear of Houston Dynamo. A win would take them level on points with FC Dallas. Nashville SC are 1st on 66 points after 29 games, 14 points clear of Inter Miami.
Team news. San Jose Earthquakes are without N. Adimabua (hernia), J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza (injury), D. Johnson (lower-body injury), D. Jones (achilles tendon injury), B. Kikanovic (lower-body injury), J. Skahan (lower-body injury). Nashville SC are without O. Presthus (lower-body injury), F. Camara (lower-body injury), O. Presthus (lower-body injury), F. Camara (lower-body injury).
Form. San Jose Earthquakes have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W D W. In this competition San Jose Earthquakes have gone D D W D W W. Nashville SC have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W D. In this competition Nashville SC have gone W W W W D L.
The numbers. San Jose Earthquakes score 1.3 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. San Jose Earthquakes average 12.6 shots (4.5 on target), 5.4 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. Nashville SC score 1.6 and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Nashville SC average 17.4 shots (6.9 on target), 5.9 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings San Jose Earthquakes have won none, drawn four and lost none. One of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 28 Apr 2024, it finished San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Nashville SC: San Jose Earthquakes had 9 shots to 17, 45% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 51% against the records' 30%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%; three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%. Not everything agrees on goals: three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No firm call: Nashville SC are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Nashville SC the likelier winners; Nashville SC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Nashville SC at 1.30, 73% on the records (Nashville SC unbeaten in 4 of 5 away; San Jose Earthquakes failed to win 7 of 10). The safer one: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17 (76%). Backup: Nashville SC win or both teams score at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Nashville SC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).