Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas
Match details. MLS, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 01:30 Lagos time. It is played at BBVA Compass Stadium, Houston.
What's at stake. Houston Dynamo are 5th on 46 points after 29 games, 1 point behind San Jose Earthquakes, 1 point clear of Los Angeles FC. A win would take them above San Jose Earthquakes. FC Dallas are 3rd on 50 points after 29 games, 1 point behind St. Louis City, 3 points clear of San Jose Earthquakes. A win would take them above St. Louis City.
Team news. Houston Dynamo are without Felipe Andrade (injury), J. Maurer (concussion), Felipe Andrade (injury), J. Maurer (concussion). FC Dallas are without L. Farrington (lower-body injury), A. A. Julio Santos (lower-body injury), Geovane Jesus (knee injury), L. Farrington (lower-body injury), A. A. Julio Santos (lower-body injury), Geovane Jesus (knee injury).
Form. Houston Dynamo have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L D L. FC Dallas have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D W.
The numbers. Houston Dynamo score 1.1 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Houston Dynamo average 13.0 shots (3.8 on target), 4.3 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. FC Dallas score 2.2 and concede three a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. FC Dallas average 12.8 shots (5.4 on target), 4.5 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last seven meetings Houston Dynamo have won one, drawn three and lost three. Two of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Houston Dynamo won one, one was drawn and FC Dallas won two. The last time they met, on 22 Mar 2026, it finished Houston Dynamo 3-4 FC Dallas: Houston Dynamo had 10 shots to 16, 45% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%; five of the last seven meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. FC Dallas's record still gives them 41% to win. The meetings do not back them. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%.
The read. Houston Dynamo or the draw. A tight game. FC Dallas are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour FC Dallas. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Five of the last seven meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Houston Dynamo or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Houston Dynamo or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Houston Dynamo 1-1 FC Dallas (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).