New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
Match details. MLS, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 00:30 Lagos time. It is played at Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison. The referee is Marcos De Oliveira.
What's at stake. New York Red Bulls are 8th on 36 points after 29 games, 2 points behind Orlando City SC, level on points with FC Cincinnati. A win would take them above Orlando City SC. Toronto FC are 11th on 33 points after 29 games, level on points with New York City FC, level on points with DC United. A win would take them above New York City FC. Toronto FC have nothing left to play for.
Team news. New York Red Bulls are without A. Marcucci (knee injury), R. Donkor (leg injury), A. Marcucci (knee injury), R. Donkor (leg injury). Toronto FC are without B. Kuscevic (yellow cards), R. Laryea (yellow cards), N. Palacio (lower-body injury), W. Zimmerman (ankle injury), B. Kuscevic (yellow cards), R. Laryea (yellow cards). R. Laryea is their centre-back. W. Zimmerman is their centre-back.
Form. New York Red Bulls have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W. In this competition New York Red Bulls have gone L W L W W L. Toronto FC have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L L. In this competition Toronto FC have gone D W L L L W.
The numbers. New York Red Bulls score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. New York Red Bulls average 14.4 shots (4.8 on target), 5.4 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Toronto FC score 1.8 and concede 2.2 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Toronto FC average 14.6 shots (5.2 on target), 4.9 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 42% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings New York Red Bulls have won six, drawn three and lost none. Five of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, New York Red Bulls won two and two were drawn. The last time they met, on 14 Mar 2026, it finished New York Red Bulls 1-1 Toronto FC: New York Red Bulls had 17 shots to 12, 68% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 59% against the records' 37%.
The read. No firm call: New York Red Bulls are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make New York Red Bulls the likelier winners; the meetings favour New York Red Bulls. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%. Five of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.11, 76% on the records (New York Red Bulls: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Toronto FC: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 3.5 Cards (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: New York Red Bulls 2-1 Toronto FC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).