MVV Maastricht vs Heracles Almelo
MVV Maastricht scored under 1.5 in 3 of 5 at home · Heracles Almelo conceded under 1.5 in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 60% · MVV Maastricht: only games against sides at Heracles Almelo's level · Heracles Almelo: only games against sides at MVV Maastricht's level
Match details. Eerste Divisie. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 15:45 Lagos time.
Form. MVV Maastricht have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L L. Heracles Almelo have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W.
The numbers. MVV Maastricht score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. MVV Maastricht average 4.3 corners and 1.2 cards a game. Heracles Almelo score three and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Heracles Almelo average 7.8 corners and 1.3 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 69% against the records' 47%.
The read. No firm call: Heracles Almelo are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Heracles Almelo the likelier winners; Heracles Almelo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Heracles Almelo. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.12, 77% on the records (MVV Maastricht: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Heracles Almelo: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: MVV Maastricht Over 0.5 Goals at 1.43. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: MVV Maastricht 1-2 Heracles Almelo (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).