Match details. State Cup, Round of 128. Kick-off is Mon 12 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Dimona SC have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W. Bnei Yehud have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D W.
The numbers. Dimona SC score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Bnei Yehud score 2.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 12% against the records' 63%.
The read. No firm call: Bnei Yehud are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bnei Yehud the likelier winners; Bnei Yehud are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bnei Yehud. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Dimona SC 1-2 Bnei Yehud (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).