Match details. State Cup, Round of 128. Kick-off is Mon 12 Oct, 18:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Hapoel Nof HaGalil F.C. have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W D. Hapoel Bnei Musmus have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D L L.
The numbers. Hapoel Nof HaGalil F.C. score 1.4 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Hapoel Bnei Musmus score 1.3 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Hapoel Bnei Musmus or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Hapoel Bnei Musmus or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Hapoel Nof HaGalil F.C. 1-2 Hapoel Bnei Musmus (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).