Match details. Southern League Premier South, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is Tue 13 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Evesham United are 13th on 13 points after 10 games, level on points with Taunton Town, 1 point clear of Basingstoke Town. A win would take them above Taunton Town. Bath City FC are 5th on 17 points after 10 games, 2 points behind Hanworth Villa, 1 point clear of Frome Town. A win would take them above Hanworth Villa.
Form. Evesham United have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D W. In this competition Evesham United have gone L L W D W L. Bath City FC have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L. In this competition Bath City FC have gone L W W W L L.
The numbers. Evesham United score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Evesham United average 2.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Bath City FC score 1.4 and concede one a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The case against. Evesham United's record still gives them 35% to win.
The read. Bath City FC to win. Bath City FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bath City FC.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Bath City FC Over 0.5 Goals (Evesham United's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Evesham United 0-1 Bath City FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).