Oita Trinita vs Albirex Niigata
Match details. Jp2, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 06:00 Lagos time. It is played at Resonac Dome Oita.
What's at stake. Oita Trinita are 7th on 14 points after 10 games, 3 points behind Shonan Bellmare, 1 point clear of Fujieda MYFC. A win would take them level on points with Shonan Bellmare. Albirex Niigata are 3rd on 20 points after 10 games, level on points with Omiya Ardija, 2 points clear of Kataller Toyama. A win would take them above Omiya Ardija.
Form. Oita Trinita have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D D D. In this competition Oita Trinita have gone W W D D D D. Albirex Niigata have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D W W. In this competition Albirex Niigata have gone D W D W W L.
The numbers. Oita Trinita score 1.6 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Oita Trinita average 10.4 shots (2.2 on target), 3.8 corners and 0.8 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. Albirex Niigata score 1.2 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Albirex Niigata average 10.4 shots (3.0 on target), 3.2 corners and 0.8 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last seven meetings Oita Trinita have won four, drawn one and lost two. Five of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Oita Trinita won three and Albirex Niigata won one. The last time they met, on 3 Sep 2022, it finished Oita Trinita 1-0 Albirex Niigata.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%; five of the last seven meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. A draw. An open game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%. Five of the last seven meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Oita Trinita 2-2 Albirex Niigata (5% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).