Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus
Match details. J1 League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa City.
What's at stake. Kashiwa Reysol are 1st on 21 points after 9 games, 1 point clear of Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Nagoya Grampus are 15th on 9 points after 9 games, level on points with V-varen Nagasaki, 1 point clear of Kyoto Sanga. A win would take them above V-varen Nagasaki.
Form. Kashiwa Reysol have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W. Nagoya Grampus have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L L.
The numbers. Kashiwa Reysol score 3.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Kashiwa Reysol average 13.7 shots (6.2 on target), 5.7 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 59% of the ball. Nagoya Grampus score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Nagoya Grampus average 11.8 shots (3.8 on target), 4.5 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 57% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Kashiwa Reysol have won three, drawn two and lost five. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Kashiwa Reysol won two and Nagoya Grampus won two. The last time they met, on 8 Nov 2025, it finished Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 Nagoya Grampus: Kashiwa Reysol had 10 shots to 8, 53% of the ball, one yellow card.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 54%; seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Nagoya Grampus's record still gives them 41% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 54%.
The read. Kashiwa Reysol to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Kashiwa Reysol the likelier winners; Kashiwa Reysol are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Kashiwa Reysol. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Under 4.5 Goals (Kashiwa Reysol are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Kashiwa Reysol are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 Nagoya Grampus (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).