Match details. USL Championship. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 00:30 Lagos time.
Form. Tampa Bay Rowdies have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L. Detroit City FC have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D W.
The numbers. Tampa Bay Rowdies score 1.8 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets. Tampa Bay Rowdies average 5.9 corners and 2.3 cards a game. Detroit City FC score 0.8 and concede 0.3 a game over their last ten, with seven clean sheets and four games without a goal. Detroit City FC average 5.1 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
The case against. Detroit City FC's record still gives them 42% to win.
The read. Tampa Bay Rowdies or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Tampa Bay Rowdies the likelier winners. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 27%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.22, 76% on the records (Tampa Bay Rowdies: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 9; Detroit City FC: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10). Backup: Tampa Bay Rowdies or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-1 Detroit City FC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).