Mansfield Town vs Oxford United
Match details. League One, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at One Call Stadium, Mansfield.
What's at stake. Mansfield Town are 14th on 11 points after 8 games, level on points with Luton, 1 point clear of Wycombe. A win would take them above Luton. Oxford United are 8th on 14 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Sheffield Wednesday, 2 points clear of Stevenage. A win would take them above Sheffield Wednesday.
Form. Mansfield Town have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D L. Oxford United have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W W.
The numbers. Mansfield Town score two and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Mansfield Town average 7.7 shots (3.1 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. Oxford United score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last seven away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Oxford United average 6.0 shots (3.1 on target), 4.3 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 57% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Mansfield Town have won one, drawn two and lost three. Five of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Mansfield Town won one, two were drawn and Oxford United won one. The last time they met, on 9 Feb 2016, it finished Mansfield Town 2-2 Oxford United.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 81%; five of the last six meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Mansfield Town's record still gives them 24% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. Oxford United to win. An open game. Oxford United are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Oxford United. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 81%. Five of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.24, 75% on the records (Mansfield Town: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 8; Oxford United: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 7). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.21. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Oxford United or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Mansfield Town Under 1.5 goals (Mansfield Town's own games don't back it (4 of 8)); 1X2 - 2UP: Oxford United (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Mansfield Town 1-2 Oxford United (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).