Match details. Championship. Kick-off is Tue 13 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time.
Form. Stoke City have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W. Middlesbrough FC have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W L W.
The numbers. Stoke City score 1.8 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. Stoke City average 4.5 corners and 2.5 cards a game. Middlesbrough FC score 1.3 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet. Middlesbrough FC average 5.8 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.50, 71% on the records (Stoke City: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 8; Middlesbrough FC: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.20. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Stoke City 1-1 Middlesbrough FC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).