Match details. Championship. Kick-off is Tue 13 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
Form. Burnley have won none, drawn six and lost four of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D L D. Charlton Athletic have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D L D.
The numbers. Burnley score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Burnley average 4.9 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Charlton Athletic score 1.3 and concede 2.5 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets. Charlton Athletic average 4.4 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The case against. Charlton Athletic's record still gives them 44% to win.
The read. Burnley to win. Their goals for and against make Burnley the likelier winners.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.28, 75% on the records (Burnley: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 8; Charlton Athletic: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 8). Backup: Burnley Over 0.5 Goals at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Burnley are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Burnley are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Burnley 1-0 Charlton Athletic (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).