Almeria vs Leganes
Match details. UD Almería Stadium is the venue as Almeria face Leganes in LaLiga 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct at 15:15 Lagos time. Gonzalo Romero Freixas is the referee.
What's at stake. Almeria are 3rd on 18 points after 8 games, two points behind Castellón and two points clear of Sabadell. A win would take them above Castellón. Leganes are 15th on 11 points after 8 games, level on points with Tenerife and two points clear of Valladolid. A win would take them above Tenerife.
Form. Almeria have won six, drawn none and lost two of their last eight, getting 2.2 points a game. Their last five show W W W W W, and in this competition they have gone W W W W W L. Leganes have won three, drawn two and lost three of their last eight, with 1.4 points a game. Their last five stand at L L W L D, going L L W L D W in this competition.
The numbers. Almeria score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game over their last eight, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 13.4 shots (4.2 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 55% of the ball. Leganes score 0.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 11.1 shots (3.8 on target), 3.0 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last seven meetings Almeria have won three, drawn two and lost two. Five of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Almeria won two, one was drawn and Leganes won one. The last time they met, on 5 Apr 2026, it finished Almeria 2-1 Leganes, with Almeria managing 18 shots to 8, 68% of the ball and five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%, but five of the last seven meetings went over 2.5, and for me the meetings settle it.
The case against. Leganes's record still gives them 23% to win. Not everything agrees on goals though, as their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%.
The read. Almeria to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Almeria the likelier winners, and they are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records and the meetings favour Almeria. Their goals for and against point to an open game, and five of the last seven meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Almeria Over 1.5 goals (Leganes's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (Almeria are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Almeria are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Almeria 2-1 Leganes (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).