INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - CONMEBOL SUDAMERICANA

BJBOC

01:30Wed 14 Oct

CRV

Boca Juniors vs CR Vasco da Gama RJ

CLASS B

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THE READ

Match details. CONMEBOL Sudamericana, Semi-finals. Kick-off is Wed 14 Oct, 01:30 Lagos time. It is played at Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires. The referee is Piero Maza Gomez.

What's at stake. CR Vasco da Gama RJ are 2nd on 10 points after 6 games, 3 points behind Olimpia, 3 points clear of A. Italiano. A win would take them level on points with Olimpia. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Boca Juniors have won six, drawn four and lost none of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W D. CR Vasco da Gama RJ have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D W. In this competition CR Vasco da Gama RJ have gone W D W D W D.

The numbers. Boca Juniors score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. Boca Juniors average 12.7 shots (4.4 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. CR Vasco da Gama RJ score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. CR Vasco da Gama RJ average 14.4 shots (5.5 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.

The case against. CR Vasco da Gama RJ's record still gives them 23% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their xG points to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.

The read. Boca Juniors or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Boca Juniors the likelier winners.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Boca Juniors or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Under 1.5 first-half goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Boca Juniors 1-1 CR Vasco da Gama RJ (6% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Double Chance: Boca Juniors or DrawIN CODES

1.20

BOC 10 of 10 (100%) · CRV 3 of 5 (60%)88.3%

Boca Juniors unbeaten in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CR Vasco da Gama RJ failed to win 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 70%

Boca Juniors or Draw (1UP)IN CODES

1.17

BOC 5 of 5 (100%) · CRV 10 of 10 (100%)86.7%

Boca Juniors scored first 3 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 5 · led or was unbeaten in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CR Vasco da Gama RJ trailed or failed to win in 3 of 5 away

Boca Juniors or Both Teams ScoreIN CODES

1.31

BOC 9 of 10 (90%) · CRV 4 of 5 (80%)79.2%

Boca Juniors: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CR Vasco da Gama RJ: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 65%

Boca Juniors 1UPLEANPAGE ONLY

1.56

BOC 4 of 5 (80%) · CRV 8 of 10 (80%)66.7%

Boca Juniors scored first 3 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CR Vasco da Gama RJ trailed in 2 of 5 away

Boca Juniors or Draw & Over 1.5LEANPAGE ONLY

1.86

BOC 7 of 10 (70%) · CRV 2 of 5 (40%)55.9%

Boca Juniors: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CR Vasco da Gama RJ: the bet landed in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 45%

BOCA JUNIORS GOALS

Boca Juniors Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.31

BOC 9 of 10 (90%) · CRV 4 of 5 (80%)79.2%

Boca Juniors scored in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CR Vasco da Gama RJ conceded in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 65%

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.41

BOC 9 of 10 (90%) · CRV 4 of 5 (80%)85%

Boca Juniors: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CR Vasco da Gama RJ: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

BOC 9 of 10 (90%) · CRV 6 of 8 (75%)82.5%

Boca Juniors's games: over 2.5 cards in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CR Vasco da Gama RJ's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 82%

Left off the list: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Boca Juniors or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Under 1.5 first-half goals (the numbers (51%) and the records (75%) are 24 points apart, and nothing settles it); Boca Juniors or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (the numbers (54%) and the records (87%) are 32 points apart, and nothing settles it); Under 5.5 Goals (the numbers (71%) and the records (100%) are 29 points apart, and nothing settles it)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 6%

Boca Juniors goals →

CR Vasco da Gama RJ goals ↓

0-02%

1-03%

2-04%

3-03%

4-02%

5-01%

0-12%

1-16%

2-17%

3-16%

4-14%

5-12%

0-22%

1-25%

2-27%

3-26%

4-24%

5-22%

0-31%

1-33%

2-34%

3-34%

4-32%

5-31%

0-40.6%

1-42%

2-42%

3-42%

4-41%

5-40.6%

0-50.2%

1-50.6%

2-50.7%

3-50.6%

4-50.4%

5-50.2%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

BOCA JUNIORSWDDWWDWWWD2.20 PPG

CR VASCO DA GAMA RJWWLWDWDWDW2.10 PPG

THE NUMBERS

BOCA JUNIORS HOMExCR VASCO DA GAMA RJ AWAY

1.80SCORED A GAME1.800.80CONCEDED A GAME0.7050%CLEAN SHEETS60%0%FAILED TO SCORE25%5.50CORNERS A GAME5.122.20CARDS A GAME2.752.91xG1.540.67xG AGAINST0.93

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

CR VASCO DA GAMA RJ 0:3 HANDICAP

–

134 OF 142

NO PRICE YET

The tips say a tight game and the Bank expects under 2.3 goals.

BOTH HALVES OVER 1.5: NO

–

138 OF 151

NO PRICE YET

The tips say a tight game and the Bank expects under 2.3 goals.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.82POINTS A GAME2.40+0.55GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.60+4.3SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+6.22.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.411LEAGUE GAMES5

CR Vasco da Gama RJ: the quality side - a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

84%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

71%

OKAY · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

97%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

BOCA JUNIORS OR DRAW

81%

OKAY · 80/85

CR VASCO DA GAMA RJ OR DRAW

40%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (11 and 5 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

BOCA JUNIORSxCR VASCO DA GAMA RJ

5GAMES52.40SCORED A GAME2.401.00CONCEDED A GAME0.803.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.2100%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%60%BOTH SCORE60%6.2CARDS IN THEIR GAMES4.27.6CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES13.8

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Boca Juniors have scored in 90% of their games.

CR Vasco da Gama RJ have scored in 80% of their games.

Boca Juniors kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

CR Vasco da Gama RJ kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsteam newscornerscards