Match details. Primera Federacion, Group 2 - 7. Kick-off is Mon 12 Oct, 17:15 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Hercules de Alicante CF are 10th on 10 points after 6 games, level on points with Ibiza, 1 point clear of Atlético Madrid II. A win would take them above Ibiza. UE Sant Andreu are 13th on 8 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Real Madrid II, level on points with Gimnastic. A win would take them above Real Madrid II.
Form. Hercules de Alicante CF have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W L. UE Sant Andreu have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D L W.
The numbers. Hercules de Alicante CF score 0.8 and concede one a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Hercules de Alicante CF average 11.0 shots (4.2 on target), 5.4 corners and 3.1 cards a game. UE Sant Andreu score 0.6 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. UE Sant Andreu average 8.1 shots (2.4 on target), 3.1 corners and 2.4 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Hercules de Alicante CF have won one, drawn none and lost one. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 4 Feb 2024, it finished Hercules de Alicante CF 3-1 UE Sant Andreu.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 33%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.29, 74% on the records (Hercules de Alicante CF: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home; UE Sant Andreu: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6). Leave: Hercules de Alicante CF or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Hercules de Alicante CF 1UP (the call is a draw); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Hercules de Alicante CF 1-1 UE Sant Andreu (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).