Match details. Liga Portugal 3, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. SC Sao Joao de Ver are 9th on 3 points after 5 games, 3 points behind SC Covilha. A win would take them level on points with SC Covilha. Varzim SC are 5th on 9 points after 5 games, -2 points behind Mafra. A win would take them above Mafra.
Form. SC Sao Joao de Ver have won two, drawn six and lost two of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D L L. Varzim SC have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W W.
The numbers. SC Sao Joao de Ver score 0.7 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and five games without a goal. SC Sao Joao de Ver average 9.9 shots (2.9 on target), 5.5 corners and 3.2 cards a game. Varzim SC score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Varzim SC average 8.9 shots (4.2 on target), 3.9 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings SC Sao Joao de Ver have won four, drawn two and lost three. Three of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, SC Sao Joao de Ver won one, one was drawn and Varzim SC won two. The last time they met, on 29 Nov 2025, it finished SC Sao Joao de Ver 1-1 Varzim SC.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%. Six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.20, 76% on the records (SC Sao Joao de Ver: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 9; Varzim SC: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 8). Backup: SC Sao Joao de Ver Over 0.5 Goals at 1.38. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Varzim SC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Varzim SC or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Varzim SC or Draw (1UP) (no result call). Predicted score: SC Sao Joao de Ver 1-1 Varzim SC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).