ANACN

14:00Sun 11 Oct

FBC

AC Nardo vs FBC Gravina

CLASS E

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. Serie D, Group H, Group H - 7. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. AC Nardo are 14th on 5 points after 6 games, 2 points behind USD Palmese, 1 point clear of Melfi. A win would take them above USD Palmese. FBC Gravina are 6th on 11 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Turris, level on points with Manfredonia. A win would take them above Turris.

Form. AC Nardo have won one, drawn two and lost three of their last six, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D D. FBC Gravina have won three, drawn two and lost one of their last six, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D W.

The numbers. AC Nardo score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game over their last six, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. FBC Gravina score two and concede 1.2 a game over their last six, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings AC Nardo have won four, drawn two and lost four. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, AC Nardo won one, two were drawn and FBC Gravina won one. The last time they met, on 18 Jan 2026, it finished AC Nardo 2-2 FBC Gravina.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%; seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.

The case against. AC Nardo's record still gives them 21% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.

The read. FBC Gravina to win. A tight game. FBC Gravina are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FBC Gravina. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); FBC Gravina or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); FBC Gravina or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AC Nardo 0-1 FBC Gravina (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

FBC Gravina or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACN 5 of 6 (83%) · FBC 5 of 6 (83%)79.2%

FBC Gravina: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · AC Nardo: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 4 of 6 · FBC Gravina: only games against sides at AC Nardo's level · AC Nardo: only games against sides at FBC Gravina's level

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACN 5 of 6 (83%) · FBC 5 of 6 (83%)94.4%

AC Nardo: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · FBC Gravina: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 5 of 6 · AC Nardo: only games against sides at FBC Gravina's level · FBC Gravina: only games against sides at AC Nardo's level

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACN 5 of 6 (83%) · FBC 5 of 6 (83%)86.4%

AC Nardo: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · FBC Gravina: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 5 of 6 · AC Nardo: only games against sides at FBC Gravina's level · FBC Gravina: only games against sides at AC Nardo's level

FBC GRAVINA GOALS

FBC Gravina Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACN 4 of 6 (67%) · FBC 5 of 6 (83%)76.6%

FBC Gravina scored in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · AC Nardo conceded in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 5 of 6 · FBC Gravina: only games against sides at AC Nardo's level · AC Nardo: only games against sides at FBC Gravina's level

HALVES

1st Half Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACN 5 of 6 (83%) · FBC 5 of 6 (83%)79.2%

AC Nardo: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · FBC Gravina: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · AC Nardo: only games against sides at FBC Gravina's level · FBC Gravina: only games against sides at AC Nardo's level

Left off the list: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); FBC Gravina or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); FBC Gravina or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 9.1%

AC Nardo goals →

FBC Gravina goals ↓

0-07%

1-08%

2-05%

3-02%

4-00.7%

5-00.2%

0-19%

1-113%

2-18%

3-13%

4-11.0%

5-10.2%

0-27%

1-29%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.7%

5-20.2%

0-33%

1-34%

2-33%

3-31%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-41%

1-42%

2-41.0%

3-40.4%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.4%

1-50.5%

2-50.3%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 6

AC NARDOLDDWLL0.83 PPG

FBC GRAVINAWWDDLW1.83 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AC NARDO HOMExFBC GRAVINA AWAY

0.83SCORED A GAME2.001.83CONCEDED A GAME1.1717%CLEAN SHEETS17%50%FAILED TO SCORE33%

THE BANK

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

75%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

63%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

73%

NO · 85/90

AC NARDO OR DRAW

47%

NO · 80/85

FBC GRAVINA OR DRAW

82%

OKAY · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (4 and 4 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10

AC NARDO 4 · 40%DRAW 2FBC GRAVINA 4 · 40%

4 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED

6 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS

3 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS

3 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS

2021-10-06AC Nardo 0 – 1 FBC Gravina

2022-02-13AC Nardo 2 – 3 FBC Gravina

2022-11-13AC Nardo 2 – 0 FBC Gravina

2023-03-19AC Nardo 1 – 0 FBC Gravina

2023-09-24AC Nardo 0 – 1 FBC Gravina

2024-01-21AC Nardo 1 – 0 FBC Gravina

2024-10-27AC Nardo 5 – 1 FBC Gravina

2025-03-02AC Nardo 0 – 2 FBC Gravina

TRENDS

AC Nardo failed to score in 50% of their games.

FBC Gravina failed to score in 33% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againsthead to headleague table