Puente Genil FC vs UD Tamaraceite
Match details. Segunda Federacion, Group 4 - 6. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Puente Genil FC are 15th on 4 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Marbella, level on points with Las Palmas II. A win would take them above Marbella. UD Tamaraceite are 17th on 3 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Las Palmas II, 1 point clear of Antoniano. A win would take them above Las Palmas II.
Form. Puente Genil FC have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L W. UD Tamaraceite have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L.
The numbers. Puente Genil FC score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Puente Genil FC average 6.2 shots (1.8 on target), 5.0 corners and 3.5 cards a game. UD Tamaraceite score 0.8 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. UD Tamaraceite average 6.3 shots (2.7 on target), 4.3 corners and 3.7 cards a game.
The case against. UD Tamaraceite's record still gives them 25% to win.
The read. Puente Genil FC to win. A tight game. Puente Genil FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Puente Genil FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%.
The bets. Best bet: Puente Genil FC or Draw at 1.20, 70% on the records (Puente Genil FC unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home; UD Tamaraceite failed to win 4 of 5). Leave: Puente Genil FC or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Puente Genil FC or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Puente Genil FC 1-0 UD Tamaraceite (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).