Club Deportiva Minera vs UD Castellonense
Match details. Segunda Federacion, Group 3 - 6. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 10:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Club Deportiva Minera are 8th on 8 points after 5 games, level on points with Cieza, level on points with Yeclano. A win would take them above Cieza. UD Castellonense are 3rd on 12 points after 5 games, level on points with La Nucía, 2 points clear of Alcoyano. A win would take them above La Nucía.
Form. Club Deportiva Minera have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D W. UD Castellonense have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W.
The numbers. Club Deportiva Minera score 1.3 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. Club Deportiva Minera average 13.2 shots (5.6 on target), 6.1 corners and 2.2 cards a game. UD Castellonense score 1.5 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. UD Castellonense average 8.5 shots (4.6 on target), 3.2 corners and 3.4 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 24% against the records' 49%.
The read. No firm call: UD Castellonense are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. UD Castellonense are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour UD Castellonense. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: UD Castellonense Over 0.5 Goals (Club Deportiva Minera's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Club Deportiva Minera 1-1 UD Castellonense (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).