CF Talavera de La Reina vs CD Atletico Paso
Match details. Segunda Federacion, Group 5 - 6. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 10:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio El Prado, Talavera de la Reina.
What's at stake. CF Talavera de La Reina are 7th on 8 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Real Valladolid II, 1 point clear of Gimnástica Segoviana. A win would take them above Real Valladolid II. CD Atletico Paso are 13th on 5 points after 5 games, level on points with Guadalajara, level on points with Albacete II. A win would take them above Guadalajara.
Form. CF Talavera de La Reina have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D D D. CD Atletico Paso have won two, drawn six and lost two of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L D L.
The numbers. CF Talavera de La Reina score 0.8 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. CF Talavera de La Reina average 12.9 shots (4.1 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game. CD Atletico Paso score 0.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. CD Atletico Paso average 7.7 shots (3.0 on target), 3.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last six meetings CF Talavera de La Reina have won three, drawn two and lost one. Two of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, CF Talavera de La Reina won two, one was drawn and CD Atletico Paso won one. The last time they met, on 19 Jan 2025, it finished CF Talavera de La Reina 4-0 CD Atletico Paso.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make CD Atletico Paso the likelier winners, but CF Talavera de La Reina are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour CF Talavera de La Reina. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%; four of the last six meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%. Four of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: CF Talavera de La Reina or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CF Talavera de La Reina 1-1 CD Atletico Paso (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).