Migori Youth FC vs Kenya Police FC
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Migori Youth FC are 12th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Police, level on points with Murang'a SEAL. A win would take them above Police. Kenya Police FC are 11th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Homeboyz, level on points with Migori Youth. A win would take them above Homeboyz.
Form. Migori Youth FC have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W. Kenya Police FC have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D D D. In this competition Kenya Police FC have gone D D D D W D.
The numbers. Migori Youth FC score two and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Migori Youth FC average 14.5 shots (4.5 on target), 5.2 corners and 1.2 cards a game. Kenya Police FC score 0.9 and concede 0.4 a game in their last seven away, with five clean sheets and three games without a goal. Kenya Police FC average 7.6 shots (2.9 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.6 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 24% against the records' 51%.
The read. No firm call: Migori Youth FC are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Migori Youth FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Migori Youth FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.14, 92% on the records (Migori Youth FC: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Kenya Police FC: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 7 away). Backup: Migori Youth FC or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.27. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Migori Youth FC Over 0.5 goals (Kenya Police FC's own games don't back it (2 of 7)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Migori Youth FC 0-0 Kenya Police FC (16% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).