Match details. Copa DIMAYOR, Round of 16. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Fortaleza FC are 2nd on 5 points after 4 games, 3 points behind Independiente Medellin, level on points with Leones FC. A win would take them level on points with Independiente Medellin. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Independiente Santa Fe have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L W. In this competition Independiente Santa Fe have gone D. Fortaleza FC have won one, drawn six and lost three of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D L D.
The numbers. Independiente Santa Fe score 1.2 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Independiente Santa Fe average 13.2 shots (4.5 on target), 5.8 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. Fortaleza FC score 1.2 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Fortaleza FC average 9.3 shots (4.0 on target), 3.3 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Independiente Santa Fe have won six, drawn three and lost one. Five of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Independiente Santa Fe won two and two were drawn. The last time they met, on 5 Sep 2026, it finished Independiente Santa Fe 2-2 Fortaleza FC.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 62% against the records' 40%.
The read. No firm call: Independiente Santa Fe are the better side, but not at this price. Independiente Santa Fe are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Independiente Santa Fe.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Independiente Santa Fe 1-1 Fortaleza FC (14% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Independiente Santa Fe or Draw (1UP)IN CODES
1.18
IND 4 of 5 (80%) · FOR 4 of 5 (80%)86.7%
Independiente Santa Fe scored first 2 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home · Fortaleza FC trailed or failed to win in 8 of 8 (last 10, all venues)
Double Chance: Independiente Santa Fe or DrawIN CODES
1.23
IND 4 of 5 (80%) · FOR 9 of 10 (90%)84.6%
Independiente Santa Fe unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home · Fortaleza FC failed to win 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · H2H 5 of 6
Independiente Santa Fe or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
IND 3 of 5 (60%) · FOR 8 of 10 (80%)80%
Independiente Santa Fe: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Fortaleza FC: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · H2H 6 of 6
Independiente Santa Fe or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.14
IND 4 of 5 (80%) · FOR 7 of 10 (70%)78.3%
Independiente Santa Fe: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Fortaleza FC: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · H2H 5 of 6
Independiente Santa Fe or Both Teams ScoreIN CODES
1.23
IND 3 of 5 (60%) · FOR 7 of 10 (70%)70.8%
Independiente Santa Fe: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Fortaleza FC: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · H2H 5 of 6
Independiente Santa Fe or Draw & Over 1.5LEANPAGE ONLY
1.53
IND 2 of 5 (40%) · FOR 7 of 10 (70%)63.3%
Independiente Santa Fe: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · Fortaleza FC: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 60% · H2H 5 of 6
Independiente Santa Fe or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.37
IND 3 of 5 (60%) · FOR 6 of 10 (60%)61.7%
Independiente Santa Fe: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Fortaleza FC: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 60% · H2H 4 of 6
Independiente Santa Fe 1UPLEANPAGE ONLY
1.42
IND 3 of 5 (60%) · FOR 3 of 5 (60%)60.8%
Independiente Santa Fe scored first 2 of last 5, led in 3 · led in 3 of 5 at home · Fortaleza FC trailed in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues)
1X2 - 2UP: Independiente Santa FeSETTLEDPAGE ONLY
1.67
IND 3 of 5 (60%) · FOR 3 of 5 (60%)52.5%
Independiente Santa Fe scored first 2 of last 5, led by 2 or won in 3 · led by 2 or won in 3 of 5 at home · Fortaleza FC trailed by 2 or lost in 3 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · rule 2: the meetings back Independiente Santa Fe: in the last 10 meetings, Independiente Santa Fe won 6, Fortaleza FC won 1 and 3 were drawn; in the last 4, Independiente Santa Fe won 2 and 2 were drawn
GOALS
Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
IND 5 of 5 (100%) · FOR 10 of 10 (100%)100%
Independiente Santa Fe: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Fortaleza FC: under 5.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · H2H 6 of 6
Over 1.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.34
IND 2 of 5 (40%) · FOR 8 of 10 (80%)69%
Independiente Santa Fe: over 1.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home · Fortaleza FC: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · H2H 6 of 6
INDEPENDIENTE SANTA FE GOALS
Independiente Santa Fe Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.24
IND 3 of 5 (60%) · FOR 7 of 10 (70%)70.8%
Independiente Santa Fe scored in 3 of 5 at home · Fortaleza FC conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · H2H 5 of 6
FORTALEZA FC GOALS
Fortaleza FC Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.22
IND 6 of 10 (60%) · FOR 3 of 5 (60%)62.9%
Fortaleza FC scored under 1.5 in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Independiente Santa Fe conceded under 1.5 in 3 of 5 at home · both last 10: 65% · H2H 4 of 6
CARDS
Over 3.5 CardsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
IND 5 of 6 (83%) · FOR 10 of 10 (100%)91.7%
Independiente Santa Fe's games: over 3.5 cards in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Fortaleza FC's games: over 3.5 cards in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 92%
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–113.5%
Independiente Santa Fe goals →
Fortaleza FC goals ↓
0-09%
1-010%
2-08%
3-03%
4-01%
5-00.3%
0-18%
1-113%
2-19%
3-14%
4-11%
5-10.4%
0-25%
1-27%
2-25%
3-22%
4-20.8%
5-20.2%
0-32%
1-33%
2-32%
3-30.9%
4-30.3%
5-30.1%
0-40.6%
1-40.8%
2-40.5%
3-40.2%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.1%
1-50.2%
2-50.1%
3-50.1%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).
FORM · LAST 10
INDEPENDIENTE SANTA FEWDDWLWLDWW1.80 PPG
FORTALEZA FCWLDLDDLDDD0.90 PPG
THE NUMBERS
INDEPENDIENTE SANTA FE HOMExFORTALEZA FC AWAY
1.40SCORED A GAME1.201.00CONCEDED A GAME1.5030%CLEAN SHEETS30%14%FAILED TO SCORE50%5.83CORNERS A GAME3.302.83CARDS A GAME3.00
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
543 OF 573
NO PRICE YET
Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
1.83POINTS A GAME0.80+0.33GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.50-0.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-2.42.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.66LEAGUE GAMES10
Independiente Santa Fe: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, better form (last 5).
INDEPENDIENTE SANTA FE 2:0 HANDICAP
–
389 OF 413
NO PRICE YET
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
82%
OKAY · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
56%
NO · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
86%
OKAY · 85/90
INDEPENDIENTE SANTA FE OR DRAW
83%
OKAY · 80/85
FORTALEZA FC OR DRAW
66%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 10 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
INDEPENDIENTE SANTA FExFORTALEZA FC
5GAMES51.60SCORED A GAME1.401.20CONCEDED A GAME2.202.8GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.660%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%60%BOTH SCORE100%6.8CARDS IN THEIR GAMES5.811.0CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES6.0
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10
INDEPENDIENTE SANTA FE 6 · 60%DRAW 3FORTALEZA FC 1 · 10%
5 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED
10 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS
5 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS
3 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS
2016-05-14Independiente Santa Fe 4 – 0 Fortaleza FC
2016-10-29Independiente Santa Fe 1 – 1 Fortaleza FC
2024-03-09Independiente Santa Fe 2 – 0 Fortaleza FC
2024-09-22Independiente Santa Fe 3 – 1 Fortaleza FC
2025-03-09Independiente Santa Fe 2 – 0 Fortaleza FC
2025-08-23Independiente Santa Fe 0 – 2 Fortaleza FC
2025-11-22Independiente Santa Fe 3 – 0 Fortaleza FC
2025-12-03Independiente Santa Fe 2 – 1 Fortaleza FC
TRENDS
Independiente Santa Fe have scored in 70% of their games.
Fortaleza FC have scored in 80% of their games.
Independiente Santa Fe kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
Fortaleza FC kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headcornerscards