Medeama SC vs Heart of Lions
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at TNA Park, Tarkwa.
What's at stake. Medeama SC are 1st on 11 points after 5 games, level on points with Samartex. Heart of Lions are 7th on 8 points after 5 games, level on points with Hearts of Oak, level on points with Swedru All Blacks. A win would take them above Hearts of Oak.
Form. Medeama SC have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D D. Heart of Lions have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L D.
The numbers. Medeama SC score 2.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Medeama SC average 8.8 shots (2.1 on target), 4.8 corners and 0.9 cards a game. Heart of Lions score 1.4 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and four games without a goal. Heart of Lions average 5.2 shots (1.5 on target), 3.2 corners and 1.7 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Medeama SC have won three, drawn two and lost five. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Medeama SC won two, one was drawn and Heart of Lions won one. The last time they met, on 17 May 2026, it finished Medeama SC 5-2 Heart of Lions.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 67% against the records' 41%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%; seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The read. No firm call: Medeama SC are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Medeama SC the likelier winners; Medeama SC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Medeama SC Over 0.5 Goals (Heart of Lions's own games don't back it (5 of 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Medeama SC 1-1 Heart of Lions (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).