Port Vale vs Chesterfield FC
Match details. League Two, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent.
What's at stake. Port Vale are 22nd on 8 points after 8 games, level on points with Oldham, 1 point clear of Northampton. A win would take them above Oldham. Chesterfield FC are 7th on 15 points after 10 games, level on points with Walsall, level on points with Cheltenham. A win would take them above Walsall.
Form. Port Vale have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L W. Chesterfield FC have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L D W.
The numbers. Port Vale score one and concede 0.2 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets. Port Vale average 8.1 shots (2.9 on target), 5.1 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. Chesterfield FC score 2.2 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet. Chesterfield FC average 19.6 shots (7.2 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 60% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Port Vale have won four, drawn one and lost three. Three of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Port Vale won two, one was drawn and Chesterfield FC won one. The last time they met, on 25 Jan 2025, it finished Port Vale 1-1 Chesterfield FC: Port Vale had 6 shots to 17, 25% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: Chesterfield FC are the stronger side on form and the table, but the meetings favour Port Vale.
The case against. Port Vale's record still gives them 31% to win. The meetings do not back them.
The read. Chesterfield FC or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Chesterfield FC are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Port Vale. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%. Five of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.36, 74% on the records (Port Vale: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 8; Chesterfield FC: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Port Vale Under 1.5 goals (Chesterfield FC's own games don't back it (3 of 8)); 1X2 - 2UP: Chesterfield FC (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Port Vale 1-1 Chesterfield FC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).