GTGRI

15:00Sat 17 Oct

NOR

Grimsby Town vs Northampton Town

CLASS E

THE READ

Match details. League Two, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Blundell Park, Grimsby.

What's at stake. Grimsby Town are 11th on 13 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Rochdale, level on points with Newport County. A win would take them above Rochdale. Northampton Town are 23rd on 7 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Port Vale, 2 points clear of Crawley Town. A win would take them above Port Vale.

Form. Grimsby Town have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L L. Northampton Town have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L W.

The numbers. Grimsby Town score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Grimsby Town average 14.8 shots (5.1 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. Northampton Town score 0.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Northampton Town average 6.6 shots (2.9 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 44% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last seven meetings Grimsby Town have won two, drawn three and lost two. Three of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Grimsby Town won one, one was drawn and Northampton Town won two. The last time they met, on 18 Feb 2023, it finished Grimsby Town 2-1 Northampton Town: Grimsby Town had 9 shots to 12, 48% of the ball, five yellow cards.

The case against. Northampton Town's record still gives them 27% to win.

The read. Grimsby Town to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Grimsby Town the likelier winners. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 36%. Four of the last seven meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (Grimsby Town are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 2.5 Goals (Grimsby Town are a clear winner, no Unders); Northampton Town Under 1.5 goals (Grimsby Town's own games don't back it (3 of 8)). Predicted score: Grimsby Town 1-0 Northampton Town (12% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Grimsby Town or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.15

GRI 3 of 8 (38%) · NOR 8 of 8 (100%)84.1%

Grimsby Town: the bet landed in 3 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Northampton Town: the bet landed in 8 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 69% · H2H 4 of 6 · Grimsby Town: only games against sides at Northampton Town's level · Northampton Town: only games against sides at Grimsby Town's level

GRIMSBY TOWN GOALS

Grimsby Town Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.16

GRI 7 of 8 (88%) · NOR 6 of 8 (75%)77.5%

Grimsby Town scored in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Northampton Town conceded in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 81% · H2H 3 of 6 · Grimsby Town: only games against sides at Northampton Town's level · Northampton Town: only games against sides at Grimsby Town's level

Left off the list: Under 3.5 Goals (Grimsby Town are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 2.5 Goals (Grimsby Town are a clear winner - no Unders); Northampton Town Under 1.5 goals (Grimsby Town's own games don't back it (3 of 8)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (Grimsby Town are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Grimsby Town are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–0 11.8%

Grimsby Town goals →

Northampton Town goals ↓

0-09%

1-012%

2-010%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.7%

0-17%

1-113%

2-110%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.7%

0-23%

1-26%

2-24%

3-22%

4-21.0%

5-20.3%

0-31%

1-32%

2-31%

3-30.8%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.3%

1-40.4%

2-40.3%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

GRIMSBY TOWNLDLLLWWDDD1.00 PPG

NORTHAMPTON TOWNDLLLWDDLLD0.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

GRIMSBY TOWN HOMExNORTHAMPTON TOWN AWAY

1.30SCORED A GAME0.501.10CONCEDED A GAME0.8830%CLEAN SHEETS20%20%FAILED TO SCORE50%6.70CORNERS A GAME5.001.50CARDS A GAME1.562.16xG0.881.48xG AGAINST1.34

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

718 OF 767

NO PRICE YET

The Bank expects 4.5+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.20POINTS A GAME0.75+0.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.25+0.3SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-1.01.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.810LEAGUE GAMES8

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

56%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

13%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

99%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

GRIMSBY TOWN OR DRAW

91%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

NORTHAMPTON TOWN OR DRAW

57%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (10 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

GRIMSBY TOWNxNORTHAMPTON TOWN

5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME0.601.00CONCEDED A GAME0.802.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES1.480%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS0%40%BOTH SCORE60%5.0CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–13.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 7

GRIMSBY TOWN 2 · 29%DRAW 3NORTHAMPTON TOWN 2 · 29%

3 of 7BOTH TEAMS SCORED

6 of 7OVER 1.5 GOALS

3 of 7OVER 2.5 GOALS

1 of 7OVER 3.5 GOALS

2013-12-07Grimsby Town 2 – 0 Northampton Town

2018-11-24Grimsby Town 2 – 2 Northampton Town

2019-03-16Grimsby Town 0 – 0 Northampton Town

2019-11-23Grimsby Town 0 – 2 Northampton Town

2020-02-29Grimsby Town 0 – 3 Northampton Town

2022-08-06Grimsby Town 1 – 1 Northampton Town

2023-02-18Grimsby Town 2 – 1 Northampton Town

TRENDS

Grimsby Town have scored in 80% of their games.

Northampton Town have scored in 50% of their games.

Grimsby Town kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Northampton Town kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards