Colchester United vs Exeter City
Match details. League Two, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Colchester Community Stadium.
What's at stake. Colchester United are 19th on 10 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Shrewsbury, level on points with Rotherham. A win would take them above Shrewsbury. Exeter City are 14th on 12 points after 10 games, level on points with Tranmere, 1 point clear of Accrington ST. A win would take them above Tranmere.
Form. Colchester United have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D L D. Exeter City have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L D.
The numbers. Colchester United score 1.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Colchester United average 8.9 shots (3.0 on target), 3.9 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. Exeter City score 0.9 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and four games without a goal. Exeter City average 9.8 shots (3.2 on target), 4.6 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Colchester United have won two, drawn three and lost four. Five of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Colchester United won one and Exeter City won three. The last time they met, on 15 Apr 2022, it finished Colchester United 0-2 Exeter City: Colchester United had 1 shots to 17, 40% of the ball, one yellow card.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 27%; five of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Exeter City's record still gives them 37% to win. The meetings do not back them. Not everything agrees on goals: five of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The read. Colchester United or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Exeter City are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Exeter City. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 27%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.31, 76% on the records (Colchester United: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 8; Exeter City: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 7). Backup: Under 2.5 first-half goals at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Colchester United Over 0.5 goals (Exeter City's own games don't back it (3 of 7)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Colchester United 1-1 Exeter City (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).