Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan Gardabae
Match details. Besta deild, Relegation Group - 4. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at VÍS völlurinn, Akureyri.
What's at stake. Thor Akureyri are 10th on 21 points after 22 games, level on points with FH hafnarfjordur, 1 point clear of KA Akureyri. A win would take them above FH hafnarfjordur. Stjarnan Gardabae are 7th on 28 points after 22 games, level on points with Keflavik, 1 point clear of Valur Reykjavik. A win would take them above Keflavik. It is played over two legs.
Form. Thor Akureyri have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W W. In this competition Thor Akureyri have gone W L L W W L. Stjarnan Gardabae have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D W. In this competition Stjarnan Gardabae have gone L L W D W W.
The numbers. Thor Akureyri score 0.7 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and four games without a goal. Stjarnan Gardabae score 1.8 and concede three a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Thor Akureyri have won two, drawn one and lost three. Four of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Thor Akureyri won one and Stjarnan Gardabae won three. The last time they met, on 23 Aug 2026, it finished Thor Akureyri 2-4 Stjarnan Gardabae.
The case against. Thor Akureyri's record still gives them 43% to win.
The read. Stjarnan Gardabae to win. An open game. Stjarnan Gardabae are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Stjarnan Gardabae; the meetings favour Stjarnan Gardabae. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%. Four of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Stjarnan Gardabae Over 0.5 goals (Thor Akureyri's own games don't back it (5 of 10)). Predicted score: Thor Akureyri 1-2 Stjarnan Gardabae (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).