Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 1. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Parken, København. The referee is J. Kooij.
What's at stake. Copenhagen are 17th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Aarhus, level on points with FC Midtjylland. A win would take them above Aarhus. Braga are 22nd on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Brann, level on points with Heart Of Midlothian. A win would take them above Brann.
Form. Copenhagen have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. Braga have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L W.
The numbers. Copenhagen score 2.1 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and two games without a goal. Copenhagen average 13.3 shots (4.9 on target), 6.0 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Braga score 0.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Braga average 11.6 shots (4.9 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 54%.
The case against. Braga's record still gives them 22% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 54%.
The read. Copenhagen to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Copenhagen the likelier winners; Copenhagen are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.31, 71% on the records (Copenhagen: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 10; Braga: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.11. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Copenhagen Over 0.5 goals (Braga's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Copenhagen 1-0 Braga (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).