INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - AFC CHAMPIONS LEAGUE ELITE

AGALG

19:15Mon 12 Oct

EST

Al Gharafa SC vs Esteghlal FC Tehran

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. AFC Champions League Elite, League Phase - 2. Kick-off is Mon 12 Oct, 19:15 Lagos time. It is played at Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Al Rayyan.

What's at stake. Al Gharafa SC are 12th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with Al-Wasl FC, level on points with Al Quwa Al Jawiya. A win would take them above Al-Wasl FC. Esteghlal FC Tehran are 2nd on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Al Ain, level on points with Al-Qadisiyah FC. A win would take them above Al Ain.

Form. Al Gharafa SC have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D L. In this competition Al Gharafa SC have gone L. Esteghlal FC Tehran have won six, drawn four and lost none of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W D D. In this competition Esteghlal FC Tehran have gone W.

The numbers. Al Gharafa SC score 2.2 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet. Al Gharafa SC average 17.4 shots (5.6 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. Esteghlal FC Tehran score 1.5 and concede 0.3 a game over their last ten, with seven clean sheets and two games without a goal. Esteghlal FC Tehran average 2.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.

Head to head. The last time they met, on 16 Sep 2024, it finished Al Gharafa SC 0-3 Esteghlal FC Tehran: Al Gharafa SC had 4 shots to 20, 47% of the ball, six yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.

The case against. Al Gharafa SC's record still gives them 29% to win.

The read. Esteghlal FC Tehran to win. Their goals for and against make Esteghlal FC Tehran the likelier winners; Esteghlal FC Tehran are the stronger side on form and the table.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Al Gharafa SC Under 1.5 goals (Al Gharafa SC's own games don't back it (2 of 6)). Predicted score: Al Gharafa SC 0-1 Esteghlal FC Tehran (12% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Esteghlal FC Tehran or Draw (1UP)IN CODES

1.28

ALG 5 of 5 (100%) · EST 10 of 10 (100%)86.7%

Esteghlal FC Tehran scored first 3 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 5 · led or was unbeaten in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Al Gharafa SC trailed or failed to win in 3 of 5 at home

Esteghlal FC Tehran or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ALG 8 of 10 (80%) · EST 5 of 6 (83%)82.8%

Esteghlal FC Tehran: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Al Gharafa SC: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · both last 10: 85%

Esteghlal FC Tehran win or both teams scoreIN CODES

1.21

ALG 8 of 10 (80%) · EST 5 of 6 (83%)82.8%

Esteghlal FC Tehran: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Al Gharafa SC: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · both last 10: 85%

2nd Half - Double Chance: Draw or Esteghlal FC TehranPAGE ONLY

1.38

ALG 9 of 10 (90%) · EST 4 of 6 (67%)80.6%

Esteghlal FC Tehran: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Al Gharafa SC: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

Esteghlal FC Tehran or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.35

ALG 6 of 10 (60%) · EST 5 of 6 (83%)72.8%

Esteghlal FC Tehran: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Al Gharafa SC: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · both last 10: 75%

Esteghlal FC Tehran or Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.42

ALG 10 of 10 (100%) · EST 2 of 6 (33%)69%

Esteghlal FC Tehran: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Al Gharafa SC: the bet landed in 2 of 6 at home · both last 10: 80%

Double Chance: Draw or Esteghlal FC TehranLEANPAGE ONLY

1.44

ALG 10 of 10 (100%) · EST 2 of 6 (33%)69%

Esteghlal FC Tehran unbeaten in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Al Gharafa SC failed to win 2 of 6 at home · both last 10: 80%

Esteghlal FC Tehran (Draw No Bet)LEANPAGE ONLY

1.81

ALG 6 of 6 (100%) · EST 1 of 5 (20%)65.9%

Esteghlal FC Tehran won 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Al Gharafa SC lost 1 of 5 at home (draws left out) · both last 10: 78% · won 2, refunded 4, lost 4

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.17

ALG 4 of 6 (67%) · EST 10 of 10 (100%)82.2%

Al Gharafa SC: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home · Esteghlal FC Tehran: under 4.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80%

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.22

ALG 5 of 6 (83%) · EST 6 of 10 (60%)72.8%

Al Gharafa SC: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · Esteghlal FC Tehran: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%

ESTEGHLAL FC TEHRAN GOALS

Esteghlal FC Tehran Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.22

ALG 8 of 10 (80%) · EST 5 of 6 (83%)82.8%

Esteghlal FC Tehran scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Al Gharafa SC conceded in 5 of 6 at home · both last 10: 85%

Left off the list: Al Gharafa SC Under 1.5 goals (Al Gharafa SC's own games don't back it (2 of 6))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 12.3%

Al Gharafa SC goals →

Esteghlal FC Tehran goals ↓

0-010%

1-08%

2-04%

3-01%

4-00.3%

5-00.1%

0-112%

1-113%

2-16%

3-12%

4-10.5%

5-10.1%

0-29%

1-29%

2-24%

3-21%

4-20.3%

5-20.1%

0-34%

1-34%

2-32%

3-30.7%

4-30.2%

5-30.0%

0-42%

1-42%

2-40.7%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.4%

1-50.4%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

AL GHARAFA SCWWWLLLDLWL1.30 PPG

ESTEGHLAL FC TEHRANWWWWDDDWWD2.20 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AL GHARAFA SC HOMExESTEGHLAL FC TEHRAN AWAY

1.80SCORED A GAME1.501.90CONCEDED A GAME0.3020%CLEAN SHEETS70%20%FAILED TO SCORE25%5.20CORNERS A GAME2.002.20CARDS A GAME3.00

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

0.80POINTS A GAME2.00-1.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.00+4.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–0.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.45LEAGUE GAMES8

Esteghlal FC Tehran: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

65%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

40%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

95%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

AL GHARAFA SC OR DRAW

71%

NO · 80/85

ESTEGHLAL FC TEHRAN OR DRAW

82%

OKAY · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (5 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

AL GHARAFA SCxESTEGHLAL FC TEHRAN

5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME0.602.20CONCEDED A GAME0.403.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES1.080%OVER 1.5 GOALS40%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS0%80%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 1

AL GHARAFA SC 0 · 0%DRAW 0ESTEGHLAL FC TEHRAN 1 · 100%

2024-09-16Al Gharafa SC 0 – 3 Esteghlal FC Tehran

TRENDS

Al Gharafa SC have scored in 80% of their games.

Esteghlal FC Tehran have scored in 80% of their games.

Al Gharafa SC kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

Esteghlal FC Tehran kept a clean sheet in 70% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards