FC Vigor Senigallia vs Atletico Ascoli
Match details. Serie D, Group F, Group F - 7. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. FC Vigor Senigallia are 3rd on 13 points after 6 games, level on points with Teramo, level on points with Foligno Calcio. A win would take them above Teramo. Atletico Ascoli are 14th on 7 points after 6 games, level on points with Maceratese, 1 point clear of Recanatese. A win would take them above Maceratese.
Form. FC Vigor Senigallia have won four, drawn one and lost one of their last six, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W W W. Atletico Ascoli have won two, drawn one and lost three of their last six, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D W.
The numbers. FC Vigor Senigallia score 2.3 and concede 1.7 a game over their last six, with two clean sheets. Atletico Ascoli score 0.8 and concede 1.3 a game over their last six, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal.
Head to head. In the last six meetings FC Vigor Senigallia have won one, drawn three and lost two. Four of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, three were drawn and Atletico Ascoli won one. The last time they met, on 12 Apr 2026, it finished FC Vigor Senigallia 2-2 Atletico Ascoli.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 54%; four of the last six meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Atletico Ascoli's record still gives them 27% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. FC Vigor Senigallia to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make FC Vigor Senigallia the likelier winners; FC Vigor Senigallia are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FC Vigor Senigallia. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 54%. Four of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: FC Vigor Senigallia 2-1 Atletico Ascoli (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).