FC Famalicao vs Alverca Futebol
Match details. Liga Portugal, Regular Season - 8, kicks off Mon 12 Oct, 20:15 Lagos time. The game is at Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicao. Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho will referee.
What's at stake. Famalicao sit 13th on 7 points after 7 games, just one point behind Moreirense and level with Rio Ave. A win would lift them above Moreirense. Alverca are 10th on 8 points after 7 games, two points behind Estrela and level with Maritimo. A win would move them above Estrela.
Form. Famalicao have won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D D L. Alverca have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D L.
The numbers. At home Famalicao score 1 and concede 1 a game in their last five, keeping two clean sheets. They average 8.3 shots (3.7 on target), 6.2 corners and 2.5 cards, holding 54% of the ball. Away Alverca score 0.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. They average 11.8 shots (5.0 on target), 3.0 corners and 2.8 cards, holding 44% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Famalicao have won 2 and lost 1. One of those three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last meeting on 16 May 2026 ended 1-0 to Famalicao; they had 11 shots to 7, 50% possession and three yellow cards.
The case against. Alverca's record still gives them 22% to win.
The read. FC Famalicao to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Famalicao the likelier winners and show they are stronger on form and the table. Both sides' records put over 2.5 goals at just 39% and two of the last three meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: FC Famalicao or Draw at 1.23, 79% on the records (FC Famalicao unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home; Alverca Futebol failed to win 4 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.11. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: FC Famalicao or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Alverca Futebol Over 0.5 goals (Alverca Futebol's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); FC Famalicao or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: FC Famalicao 1-0 Alverca Futebol (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).