Pakhtakor vs Al Qadsiah
Match details. This is an AFC Champions League Elite, League Phase - 2 clash. Kick-off is Mon 12 Oct, 14:45 Lagos time. It's at Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium in Tashkent.
What's at stake. Pakhtakor sit 9th with 1 point after 1 game, level on points with Al Shamal and Al-Ahli Jeddah. A win would lift them above Al Shamal. Al Qadsiah sit 3rd with 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Esteghlal FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC. A win would move them above Esteghlal FC.
Form. Pakhtakor have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game, and their last five are W W D W W; in this competition they're D W. Al Qadsiah have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game, with a last-five run of W W D W W; in this competition they're W.
The numbers. Pakhtakor score 1.8 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, keeping three clean sheets and being shut out twice. They average 8.8 shots (3.2 on target), 1.0 corners and 1.8 cards a game. Al Qadsiah score 3.4 and concede 0.2 a game in their last five away, with four clean sheets. They average 14.4 shots (6.2 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.0 cards a game, holding 57% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The case against. Pakhtakor's record still gives them 32% to win.
The read. Al Qadsiah to win. Their goals for and against make Al Qadsiah the likelier winners. Al Qadsiah are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour Al Qadsiah.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Pakhtakor Under 1.5 goals (Pakhtakor's own games don't back it (4 of 10)); 1X2 - 2UP: Al Qadsiah (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Pakhtakor 0-1 Al Qadsiah (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).