Peterborough United vs Burton Albion
Match details. League One, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 Lagos time. It is played at ABAX Stadium, Peterborough.
What's at stake. Peterborough United are 20th on 8 points after 9 games, level on points with Barnsley, level on points with Bromley. A win would take them above Barnsley. Burton Albion are 10th on 12 points after 10 games, level on points with Stevenage, level on points with Mansfield Town. A win would take them above Stevenage.
Form. Peterborough United have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W L. Burton Albion have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W D.
The numbers. Peterborough United score 1.8 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Peterborough United average 5.2 shots (2.1 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. Burton Albion score 0.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Burton Albion average 9.8 shots (2.9 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Peterborough United have won four, drawn four and lost two. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in seven. In the last four, Peterborough United won one, two were drawn and Burton Albion won one. The last time they met, on 19 Apr 2026, it finished Peterborough United 1-1 Burton Albion: Peterborough United had 15 shots to 14, 59% of the ball, three yellow cards.
The case against. Burton Albion's record still gives them 35% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The read. Peterborough United to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Peterborough United the likelier winners; the meetings favour Peterborough United.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.56, 71% on the records (Peterborough United: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 7; Burton Albion: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.22. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Burton Albion or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs Peterborough United); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Peterborough United 1-0 Burton Albion (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).