Match details. Serie D, Group I, Group I - 7. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Nicola De Simone, Siracusa.
What's at stake. Siracusa Calcio are 13th on 4 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Vigor Lamezia, level on points with CastrumFavara. A win would take them above Vigor Lamezia. Vigor Lamezia are 12th on 5 points after 6 games, 2 points behind Modica, 1 point clear of Siracusa. A win would take them above Modica.
Form. Siracusa Calcio have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W D. Vigor Lamezia have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L D.
The numbers. Siracusa Calcio score 1.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Siracusa Calcio average 8.7 shots (3.0 on target), 5.3 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Vigor Lamezia score one and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Vigor Lamezia average 10.8 shots (4.0 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
The case against. Vigor Lamezia's record still gives them 21% to win.
The read. Siracusa Calcio to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Siracusa Calcio the likelier winners; Siracusa Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Siracusa Calcio or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Siracusa Calcio or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Siracusa Calcio 1-0 Vigor Lamezia (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).